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Return of the Black Death
Return of the Black Death: The World's Greatest Serial Killer | Susan Scott, Christopher J. Duncan
15 posts | 2 read
If the twenty-first century seems an unlikely stage for the return of a 14th-century killer, the authors of Return of the Black Death argue that the plague, which vanquished half of Europe, has only lain dormant, waiting to emerge againperhaps, in another form. At the heart of their chilling scenario is their contention that the plague was spread by direct human contact (not from rat fleas) and was, in fact, a virus perhaps similar to AIDS and Ebola. Noting the periodic occurrence of plagues throughout history, the authors predict its inevitable re-emergence sometime in the future, transformed by mass mobility and bioterrorism into an even more devastating killer.
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review
shanaqui
Panpan

So this had a couple of points I do want to look up and verify elsewhere (has anyone else replicated their work on incubation periods? Were rats and fleas really not living in Britain at the time?). However they make basic errors of fact both scientific and historical, and some of their ideas have recently been thoroughly disproven. I don't recommend this; it is not a reputable or reliable source.

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shanaqui
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Authors are now going into an imaginary new outbreak of what they insist is a haemorrhagic virus. Apart from barrier nursing, they say, there is nothing authorities can do.

Bullshit. Trace the contacts, isolate them, potentially treat them preventatively with antivirals and broad-spectrum antibiotics. Use the blood serum of anyone who recovers to treat new patients. Do basic public health response work, in other words.

Lauraandherbooks Wow... looks like an interesting read 4y
12 likes1 comment
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shanaqui
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First, not related to the image: I cannot find anything in the literature where buboes can be caused by a viral infection. Bubonic plague is not the only cause, but all the causes are bacterial.

Also, without comment beyond ??‍♀️?‍♂️: "[Measles] is not a danger to well nourished children in the developed world."

Wait, no, I have to comment. Measles is dangerous both in itself and because it actively destroys immunity to other diseases.

shanaqui Vaccinate your kids against measles, because vaccines cannot cause autism, there is literally no mechanism by which that can work; and measles can cause death, permanent disability and long-term immune suppression. 4y
Clare-Dragonfly Wow. I didn‘t know about the immune suppression. 😱 I‘m glad my toddler is up to date on his shots and my area has not had a problem with unvaccinated kids. 4y
shanaqui @Clare-Dragonfly It's fairly new research! I did a blog post about it actually: https://wp.me/p8Dguh-87 4y
12 likes3 comments
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shanaqui
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I take photos lest people not believe me how bad this book is.

"The symptoms of Ebola start with a sudden fever and the victim is killed by the liquefaction of the internal organs."

Ebola does not liquefy your organs. You haemorrhage, but your organs are not liquefied. There is some necrosis, but no liquefaction. This is a myth spread by the book The Hot Zone and the amounts of blood people see. It LOOKS like liquefaction.

sheshedbooks 😍 the way you're pointing out how badly researched and written this book is. Surprised you have not bailed. 4y
shanaqui @greenreads It's sort of enjoyable in a way because I get to do research and ask questions -- I love epidemiology! But also yeah it is deeply frustrating. 4y
Hestapleton I‘ve had THE HOT ZONE on my TBR because I know nothing about epidemiology, but I‘m fascinated by medicine/disease. Are there better books I should read instead? 4y
See All 6 Comments
shanaqui @Hestapleton I'm sorry I missed this comment! I was away and meant to come back to it once I was home. As a start, I'd recommend David Quammen's Spillover -- it's the book that got me interested and led to me doing part of my degree in infectious disease. :D

If you're looking for others not specifically about ebola, I rec “Catching Breath“ by Kathryn Lougheed (on tuberculosis), “Paralysed with Fear“ by Gareth Williams (polio)...
4y
shanaqui @Hestapleton ...and The Great Influenza by John M. Barry and Pale Rider by Laura Spinney (both about the 1918 flu pandemic). 4y
Hestapleton @shanaqui thank you so much!!!! 4y
11 likes6 comments
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shanaqui
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"The signs, symptoms and autopsy reports of victims of
bubonic plague are entirely different from these: they do not
display God's tokens, nor is there widespread necrosis of the
internal organs."

But septicaemic plague (which is the same bacterium as bubonic plague) can cause necrosis. I've never dissected an animal with either disease, but I wonder about this. The authors don't seem too strong on the other presentations of Y. pestis infection.

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shanaqui
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"Is it possible that these treatments, whereby swollen lymph nodes were lanced or perhaps a large proportion of the infected white blood cells was removed, could have allowed the immune system to defeat the infection?"

Try asking a medical doctor. Or someone with an undergrad degree in biology. I am the latter. Yes to lancing lymph nodes, no to bleeding. You're welcome.

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shanaqui

They do address the genetic evidence from older studies, but not from the one I know of, which had good controls. They basically dismiss the results as contamination or a different plague. They also admit they do not understand genetics.

Objection not sustained. They're wrong and that's another essential block of their argument gone.

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shanaqui

I will admit that the argument of these authors against the theory that the Black Death was not bubonic plague seems solid. They establish that the vectors usually blamed (rats and fleas) were not present. (Assuming you believe what they say without citations, and you haven't noticed that they don't know absolutely basic history.) However... Their argument completely rules out plague transmission in England (for one).

Cont. in comment!

shanaqui Except we have proof that people buried in plague pits were, at the very least, exposed to Yersinia pestis. I.e. the authors are completely incorrect to contend that bubonic plague cannot exist in Britain. This whole section falls apart completely with the DNA evidence. 4y
9 likes1 comment
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shanaqui
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[citation needed]

Willing to believe the rat thing is correct, but I want the reference first. Oh look, there isn't one.

llwheeler Extremely bold statement to make with no reference... Also, "with complete certainly"? (unless the screen shot is messing with my eyes). This book could have used more editing, it seems... 4y
shanaqui @llwheeler Yep. “Complete certainty“. 4y
Clare-Dragonfly @llwheeler That does say “certainly,” doesn‘t it? 4y
See All 6 Comments
shanaqui @llwheeler @Clare-Dragonfly It does! And then my phone autocorrected it when I tried to confirm it does. Autocorrect is better than the editing on this book... 😂 4y
Clare-Dragonfly 🤦🏻‍♀️ 4y
llwheeler Lol! 4y
11 likes6 comments
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shanaqui
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This is really picky, but a manuscript from 1404 -- even assuming that it was original, written in that year and not a copy -- is not ancient. These guys just have no real understanding of the scale of history.

llwheeler Completely agree, and I don't think it's being too picky as a criticism either when in the context of a published book 4y
shanaqui @llwheeler I swore I would finish this book, but ohhh it's testing me. 4y
llwheeler Lol. I'm more interested in the time period in general than the black death in specific, but thanks for taking the hit on this one - if I ever do research more, I'll skip it! 4y
Emilymdxn Ugh that‘s so annoying. That‘s not even the early Middle Ages! I wouldn‘t mind if it was someone down the pub making a mistake but in a book with an editor and publishers checking... 4y
14 likes4 comments
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shanaqui
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Why are you surprised, you idiots? Contact between Scotland Iceland was common by the 1100s, with well-adapted boats designed for the purpose. Not safe, perhaps, nor particularly fast, but these authors just strike me as idiots who have done no research at all.

This book's cavalier approach to any kind of historical research is driving me absolutely round the twist. The author who recced this is... gullible, to say the least.

Clare-Dragonfly 🤦🏻‍♀️🤦🏻‍♀️🤦🏻‍♀️ 4y
14 likes1 comment
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shanaqui
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"...by all the rules of infectious diseases, when the Black Death was finished it should have disappeared."

What idiocy is this? Animal reservoirs. Endemic infections like measles, chicken pox, polio. Reintroduction from the same source again. Why are these authors so utterly wrong if one is allegedly an epidemiologist???

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shanaqui

The authors assert that there is no panic or mystery about HIV, and that it is completely understood and under control, which makes me think they're living under a rock. Or just don't actually know what they're talking about, which I'll confess is my suspicion about this whole book, despite my attempts to be fair.

shanaqui @Clare-Dragonfly If nothing else (and there is a lot else) it makes me want to write them letters asking when they solved the issue of why TB and AIDs tend to co-infect and make each other worse, and why they haven't published the proof... As just one example from my personal knowledge of why they are wrong on HIV. 4y
12 likes2 comments
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shanaqui

So far they've presented no proof, but I think I see some of the angles of attack. For example, they've noted that the first burial recorded as being due to plague in this town they're using as a case study was on its own, followed by 11 days without any burials marked as being due to plague. The incubation period of bubonic plague is only a few days, and pneumonic as little as a single day. Where did it go for 11 days?

(Cont in comments...)

shanaqui However:

1) The modern strain of Yersinia pestis is not the same as the medieval strain, so we can't draw too many conclusions about that.

2) The first death may have been from something else and attributed to plague from fear. There may have been other unrecorded deaths in between, possibly the first person to die was isolated and the next person to be infected only developed the disease days after they were buried, and had a long illness.
4y
shanaqui ...Needless to say, if they're going to argue from the incubation period, I'm going to be sceptical.

They've also listed out symptoms which were reported, which sound EXACTLY like pneumonic and bubonic plague. These are the same disease, presenting differently depending on where it is localised in the body. Septicaemic plague is also possible and can account for even more of the variation seen in the plague.
4y
11 likes2 comments
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shanaqui

Seanan Mcguire posted on twitter that one of her opinions she will never change her mind about is the idea that the Black Death was not due to bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis). I asked her for a source and she referred me to this book.

I'm not impressed by the idea of referring to a disease as a serial killer (it's true in a figurative sort of way. sure, but agency is totally lacking in the disease!), but I'll give it a chance.