The Collapse of Complex Societies | 
pickTainter‘s thesis is a classic of the genre. He argues that a main factor responsible for collapse is declining marginal returns on investment in complexity whether it be economic, social, scientific research, infrastructure or military expansion and collapse may be a positive, rational response to this decline. His case studies are the Roman Empire, the southern lowland Maya and the Chaco Canyon civilization. This is very much an academic text.
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