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The NFL Draft: How "The Experts" Get It Wrong More Often Than Not, Expensively | David Berri, Martin Schmidt

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This is the eBook version of the printed book. This Element is an excerpt from Stumbling On Wins: Two Economists Expose the Pitfalls on the Road to Victory in Professional Sports (9780132357784) by David J. Berri and Martin B. Schmidt. Available in print and digital formats. Why NFL teams’ conventional approach to the draft just doesn’t work--and what they should be doing instead. If the NFL draft worked according to conventional wisdom, the greatest surplus value would be found at the top of the draft. However, the data suggests that picks in the top half of the second round have the greatest surplus value. This means teams in the first round, especially at the top, should be making every effort to trade down. They’ve traditionally done the opposite....

LauraJ

The NFL Draft: How "The Experts" Get It Wrong More Often Than Not, Expensively | David Berri, Martin Schmidt

Watching the draft and reading. Very disappointed in the lack of colorful player names so far.

Billypar I really thought Hingle McCringleberry would go earlier ðŸ˜ 5y

GloVerdino Haha! We‘re waiting for Drew Lock to get drafted, then I‘m going to bed! 5y

LauraJ @Billypar ðŸ˜¹. Where‘s this year‘s HaHa Clinton-Dix or Barkevious Mingo? No D‘Brickashaws! I also enjoy watching for the clothes. So much better than a red carpet. 5y

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Billypar Oh wow, those are real ones! It's been a long time since I've watched the NFL draft, so all my funny names are from Key and Peele. 5y

LauraJ @GloVerdino Looks like you may be in for a late night. 5y

LauraJ @Billypar That‘s one of my favorite Key & Peele skits‘ 5y

26 likes6 comments